The action on gold/silver this week implied that $22-23 silver and $1435-1470 gold is back in play. However, even if we reach those bottoms, they are not likely to last all the way to November. In fact, I will be very surprised if gold does not rally at some point before November.
I'm hoping we see a big rally in gold before November and everything is pointing that way. Gold has been in a negative trend (although we bounced off the bottom in May) since September and the money printing machine has been running non-stop. The bond markets in Europe have been hemorrhaging, which is a good reason to buy gold. And the US economy has been weak with no recovery in sight, another reason to buy gold.
There are a lot of investors out there that don't want to buy gold, because that is like throwing in the towel. They would much rather invest in stocks and bonds and feel good about America. However, they KNOW that gold is insurance and where they MUST be if things go south. There is a LOT of money that could flow into gold very quickly if that appears to be the place for safety.
For the past year, gold has been perceived as a risk-on trade, but I think that is because investors WANT gold to be a risk-on. When the financial system gets weaker, there will be a quick move back to reality that gold is in fact a risk-off trade. I can't wait for that to happen, and I think it very will could be before November.
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